Quick Overview
- Robinhood shares have climbed approximately 33% since late-March bottoms but still trade 23% lower year-to-date
- Bernstein maintains Outperform stance with $130 target, suggesting roughly 50% potential gains
- Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein argues Q1 weakness is already reflected in current valuations
- Firm’s 2026 crypto revenue projections exceed Street consensus by 31%; prediction markets estimates 30% higher
- Prediction market revenues expected to skyrocket 286% annually to approximately $586 million in 2026
Robinhood’s stock performance has been challenging. Shares have plummeted 53% from their peak of $153.86 reached within the past year and remain underwater by 23% in 2026. Declining transaction volumes, weakening cryptocurrency income, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions have weighed on sentiment.
Yet Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani remains firmly optimistic.
The analyst maintained his Outperform recommendation and $130 valuation ahead of the company’s first-quarter 2026 financial release scheduled for April 28. With shares currently trading near $71.67, this price objective represents approximately 50% appreciation potential.
Chhugani’s central thesis is straightforward: disappointing Q1 results are already embedded in the share price, allowing investors to shift their attention toward future opportunities.
Cryptocurrency Resurgence Drives Optimism
Chhugani contends that Bitcoin has already established a price floor and anticipates substantial cryptocurrency momentum beginning in the second quarter.
His projections call for Robinhood’s cryptocurrency-related revenues to climb 23% annually to $1.1 billion in 2026. This would represent approximately 15% of overall revenue expansion. A broader digital asset price recovery during the latter half of the year should enhance retail participation and lift transaction rates.
Bitstamp, which Robinhood purchased for $200 million last June, receives particular emphasis. Chhugani characterizes the acquisition as a “key differentiator,” highlighting its rapid growth in institutional trading that now generates roughly 60% of aggregate crypto transaction volume.
Bernstein’s cryptocurrency revenue projection for 2026 stands 31% above consensus Wall Street forecasts. Looking ahead to 2027, their estimates exceed consensus by 18% on revenues and 25% on earnings per share.
Prediction Markets Emerge as Primary Growth Engine
Chhugani identifies prediction markets as the most significant incremental growth opportunity for Robinhood throughout 2026.
Segment revenues are anticipated to surge from approximately $150 million in 2025 to roughly $586 million in 2026 — representing extraordinary 286% annual expansion. This business line would constitute about 17% of transaction-derived revenues and drive around 30% of total revenue growth.
The analyst also highlights upcoming catalysts: the United States will host the Football World Cup during summer 2026, while midterm congressional elections later that year should energize political event wagering.
From a market share perspective, Robinhood currently captures just 4% of the total brokerage revenue opportunity. Its retail trading revenue market share expanded from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, propelled by diversification into cryptocurrency and prediction markets.
Bernstein’s 2026 revenue forecast sits 9% above consensus, with earnings per share estimates 16% higher. For 2027, revenue projections exceed consensus by 18% and EPS by 25%.
Not all Wall Street analysts share this enthusiasm. Truist reduced its price objective to $100 from $120, expressing concerns about weakening transaction revenues. Mizuho lowered its target to $105 from $110, highlighting softer net interest income trends. Citizens decreased its target to $155 from $180 after cutting Q1 2026 EBITDA projections to $573.1 million, beneath consensus expectations.
Among 17 analysts providing coverage, 14 assign Buy ratings while 3 recommend Hold, yielding a Strong Buy consensus. The average analyst price target stands at $104.56, implying approximately 20% upside from present levels.
First-quarter earnings are scheduled for release on April 28.
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