TLDR
- SanDisk stock faces a major test as revenue and earnings estimates exceed the company’s original guidance.
- Visible Alpha expects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $8.71 billion and adjusted EPS of $35.45.
- Data-centre revenue rose 233% sequentially to $1.47 billion in the previous quarter.
- Investors will focus on NAND prices, enterprise SSD demand, gross margins, and fiscal 2027 guidance.
- Options priced a possible 14.9% stock move after earnings, showing high market uncertainty.
SanDisk (SNDK) stock faces a major test after Wednesday’s earnings as investors look beyond another expected revenue beat. The company may report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $8.71 billion and adjusted earnings of $35.45 per share, according to Visible Alpha.
Those estimates exceed SanDisk’s guidance ceiling of $8.25 billion in revenue and $33 in adjusted earnings. Investors now want proof that strong NAND prices, data-centre demand, and new supply agreements can support growth into fiscal 2027.
SanDisk Stock Must Beat Raised Expectations
Revenue near $8.71 billion would reach more than four times the $1.90 billion reported a year earlier. However, results within management’s original range may still disappoint because the market has already raised its expectations.
Options expiring Friday priced a move of about 14.9% in either direction. That range placed the shares between roughly $1,211 and $1,635, based on Tuesday’s close near $1,428. Options measure expected volatility, not market direction.
SanDisk’s fiscal third-quarter data-centre revenue rose 233% from the previous quarter to $1.47 billion. TLC enterprise SSD sales drove much of that growth, while consumer revenue fell 10% during the same period.
The company also expects its high-capacity QLC Stargate products to start generating revenue in fiscal Q4. Investors will watch enterprise SSD shipments, NAND selling prices, bit growth, production costs, and gross margin guidance.
July Selloff Raised Peak-Cycle Concerns
SanDisk stock fell 46.6% in July before the company reported any confirmed demand weakness. Micron and other memory shares also declined, showing that investors reduced exposure across the wider memory sector.
The selloff reflected concern that high NAND margins may not last. Near-term contract prices could rise 10% to 15% in the September quarter, but faster supply growth could pressure prices during the second half of 2027.
Fiscal 2027 Guidance Becomes the Key Test
SanDisk’s earnings call and August 13 Investor Day must provide clearer targets for fiscal 2027. Investors want details on sustainable margins, enterprise SSD demand, customer agreements, and revenue visibility.
Evercore ISI estimates five agreements may cover about $62 billion in minimum revenue, backed by over $11 billion in guarantees and prepayments. Investors need evidence that these commitments protect cash flow when NAND prices weaken.
Analysts will also seek contract terms covering prices, volumes, guarantees, and cancellation rights. Strong results may support SanDisk stock, but guidance must show that earnings can remain firm after the current NAND shortage eases.
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