SanDisk (SNDK) Stock: Should You Buy the Dip After 30% Decline?

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

SNDK has surged 574% in 2026 but experienced a sharp 30%+ decline from its June 22 high of $2,354.39, trading at $1,599.27 on Thursday’s open
Third-quarter revenue jumped nearly 100% to $5.95 billion, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 78.4% and adjusted EPS of $23.41 exceeded forecasts by $9.24
Fourth-quarter projections anticipate revenue between $7.75B and $8.25B with EPS ranging from $30 to $33, while gross margins are expected at 79%–81%
Wall Street price targets span from $1,200 (Goldman Sachs) to $3,250 (Susquehanna), averaging $1,820.90 with a “Moderate Buy” consensus
Concerns include potential supply gluts, decelerating hyperscaler infrastructure spending, and intensifying rivalry from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron

SanDisk (SNDK) has emerged as the dominant market narrative of 2026. The company’s shares skyrocketed 726% during the year’s first six months — outpacing Micron, the S&P 500’s runner-up, which gained 266%.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

Shares opened Thursday’s session at $1,599.27, representing a significant retreat from the 52-week peak of $2,354.39 recorded on June 22. This decline translates to approximately a 32% correction over just one month.

The explosive growth stemmed from several converging factors: explosive AI-driven data center infrastructure expansion, tight NAND supply resulting from 2023 production reductions, and robust market reception of SanDisk’s BiCS8 storage technology. Data center-focused revenue exploded 233% quarter-over-quarter in Q3.

The BiCS8 technology delivers 15%–19% higher data density within a more compact form factor compared to rival offerings. Power consumption drops by approximately 13% — an attractive feature for energy-intensive AI computing facilities.

Third-quarter performance validated the market enthusiasm. Revenue climbed to $5.95 billion (nearly doubling year-over-year), non-GAAP gross margin expanded dramatically from 51.1% to 78.4%, and adjusted EPS reached $23.41 — crushing analyst expectations of $14.17 by a remarkable $9.24.

The company also produced approximately $3 billion in free cash flow during the quarter, maintains zero debt on its balance sheet, and has approved a $6 billion share repurchase program.

Fourth-quarter guidance projects revenue of $7.75B–$8.25B — representing a sequential increase of 30%–39% — alongside EPS expectations of $30–$33. Non-GAAP gross margins are forecast to range between 79% and 81%.

Wall Street’s Current View

Analyst sentiment remains predominantly bullish, though price target ranges are substantial. Bernstein elevated its target from $1,700 to $3,000 with an Outperform designation, emphasizing multi-year supply contracts that the firm believes offer significant downside cushion. Bernstein calculates pricing floor protection around $0.29 per gigabyte within agreements extending three to five years.

Susquehanna holds the Street’s highest conviction, pushing its target to $3,250 with a Buy recommendation. The firm anticipates NAND pricing gains of 75%–100% based on proprietary industry research.

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan increased his target from $2,100 to $2,500, projecting favorable pricing dynamics through mid-2027.

Morgan Stanley maintained its Outperform stance while lifting the target to $1,750, highlighting a memory chip shortage with “no immediate resolution” due to the extended timeline required for constructing new clean room facilities.

Goldman Sachs represents the conservative perspective, sustaining a Buy rating with a $1,200 target. The aggregate consensus among 26 analysts stands at $1,820.90, comprising 18 Buy ratings, 2 Strong Buys, and 6 Hold recommendations.

Potential Headwinds

Skeptics present several legitimate concerns. Historical semiconductor shortage patterns show customers frequently over-order inventory, and when manufacturing capacity normalizes, pricing can deteriorate rapidly.

Hyperscaler capital expenditure is projected to moderate. UBS forecasts spending growth of 76% this year, declining to just 25% next year and 6% in 2028. This trajectory presents challenges for a stock valued on aggressive growth assumptions.

Competitive pressures are mounting. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese producers are collectively expanding manufacturing capacity. SK Hynix’s recent Nasdaq debut may also redirect investor attention and capital away from SNDK.

Regarding insider activity, EVP Alper Ilkbahar divested 2,000 shares in June at $1,756.58, while insider Bernard Shek sold 600 shares in July at $2,088. Insiders have collectively sold $10.1 million in stock over the past three months.

SNDK’s fourth-quarter earnings announcement is scheduled for August 5, followed by an Investor Day presentation on August 13.

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