Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer launches coverage with an Outperform rating and $190 price target for SpaceX
- New Street Research establishes a $165 valuation, representing approximately 22% upside from IPO pricing
- Wall Street forecasts anticipate $195 billion in revenue by 2030, generating $65 billion in operating income
- Current valuation metrics show SpaceX trading at roughly 38x projected 2030 operating profit compared to Alphabet’s 13x multiple
- Retail investor interest may exceed $70 billion, with minimum 20% allocation reserved for individual buyers
As SpaceX prepares for its highly anticipated public market entrance on Friday, June 12, with shares priced at $135, Wall Street analysts are already establishing their positions on the aerospace giant.
Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research led the charge with initial coverage, establishing a $165 valuation target. This represents approximately 22% appreciation potential from the offering price and translates to an equity valuation near $2.3 trillion. While Ferragu hasn’t assigned a traditional rating due to uncertainty surrounding the actual opening price, his optimistic scenario envisions shares reaching $330 under favorable conditions.
Timothy Horan at Oppenheimer took an even more aggressive stance, initiating coverage with an Outperform recommendation and a $190 price objective. KGI Securities has also weighed in with a Buy rating, although complete details of their analysis remain limited in public circulation.
Ferragu’s financial projections envision 2030 revenues hitting $195 billion alongside operating profits of $65 billion. Within this framework, he attributes $650 billion in value to Starlink operations and another $575 billion to artificial intelligence initiatives.
Averaging the price objectives from Ferragu and Horan places SpaceX at roughly 38 times its projected 2030 operating earnings. This premium valuation contrasts sharply with Alphabet, which currently commands approximately 13 times the same forward metric.
Understanding the Valuation Premium
According to Horan, SpaceX represents “the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.”
His investment case revolves around SpaceX’s unique positioning to construct and manage orbital data centers. CEO Elon Musk has publicly argued these space-based facilities could achieve lower operational costs than terrestrial counterparts in coming years.
This narrative has resonated strongly with investors. Market intelligence indicates retail demand for IPO shares could surpass $70 billion. The company plans to direct at least 20% of available shares toward retail participants—an unusually generous allocation for a transaction of this magnitude. Meanwhile, international institutional investors may receive allocations below 10%.
Major trading platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab are preparing to facilitate retail access to the offering.
The listing hasn’t proceeded without controversy. Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged the SEC to postpone the debut, introducing regulatory uncertainty amid otherwise overwhelming investor appetite.
Early Trading Indicators
While official trading hasn’t commenced, perpetual futures contracts on cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid were valuing SpaceX shares around $164 as of Thursday morning—remarkably close to Ferragu’s established target.
It’s important to recognize that New Street, Oppenheimer, and KGI are not serving as underwriters for this offering. Financial institutions participating in IPO underwriting face mandatory waiting periods before publishing equity research. These independent analysts face no such constraints.
In a related development, Oppenheimer simultaneously upgraded its Tesla forecast in the same research note, citing strengthened electric vehicle demand supported by elevated crude oil prices.
Should SpaceX achieve a closing price near the $164 futures indication on Friday, analysts may find themselves adjusting price targets upward almost immediately following the debut.
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