SpaceX (SPCX) Shares Decline 6% as Starship Catch Timeline Extends

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

SpaceX shares declined 6.4% to $130.66, dipping beneath the company’s $135 initial public offering price on Thursday.
Elon Musk announced the Starship upper stage catch attempt will occur “in a few months” rather than in the immediate future.
The upcoming 14th Starship test flight had been anticipated to demonstrate the upper stage catch utilizing mechanical tower arms.
Analyst Louie DiPalma from William Blair maintains an Outperform rating, noting the delay has minimal long-term impact.
The company plans to deploy Starmind AI computing satellites by 2027, which will likely depend on Starship operations.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) experienced a 6.4% decline to $130.66 during Thursday’s midday trading session, falling beneath the company’s $135 initial public offering price following CEO Elon Musk’s announcement regarding an extended timeline for capturing the Starship upper stage using the launch tower system.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Through a post on X, Musk revealed that the company would “probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months,” tempering expectations that this significant achievement would occur during the upcoming test flight.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2090305535537851863?s=20

The anticipated 14th Starship test flight, scheduled for later this month, had been projected to showcase the upper stage catch maneuver. The company successfully demonstrated this capability with the Super Heavy booster during October 2024’s Flight 5, employing the massive mechanical “Mechazilla” arms located at the Starbase facility in Texas.

SpaceX successfully repeated the booster capture during subsequent flights, including Flight 7, which strengthened confidence in the technology. However, capturing the upper stage presents significantly greater technical challenges, as it must return from substantially higher velocities and thermal stress following near-orbital missions.

Musk additionally indicated that the inaugural reflight of a Starship vehicle is projected to take place by late 2026 or in early 2027.

The broader S&P 500 index decreased by 0.5% during Thursday’s session, meaning SpaceX’s decline substantially exceeded the general market performance.

Analyst Perspectives

Louie DiPalma, an analyst at William Blair, downplayed concerns about the sell-off. In a Thursday research note, he characterized the postponement as “not that consequential” given that SpaceX maintains a position “likely a full decade ahead of peers” in rocket reusability technology.

DiPalma assigns an Outperform rating to the stock without establishing a specific price target. At William Blair, this designation indicates the analyst anticipates the stock will outperform the broader market.

While recognizing the schedule adjustment, he emphasized the company’s overall advancement: Starship continues progressing toward complete reusability, enabling both rocket stages to return to the launch site, undergo refueling, and launch again rapidly.

This quick-turnaround reusability represents the foundation of SpaceX’s cost reduction strategy, with Musk projecting it could decrease orbital access costs by a factor of 100 or greater.

Implications for SpaceX’s Future

SpaceX stock has demonstrated considerable volatility following its landmark June initial public offering. Thursday’s decline represents one of the more pronounced single-session movements since the company began trading publicly.

Starship development holds significance extending beyond the test program itself. The company is targeting 2027 for deploying its Starmind AI computing satellites, with Starship likely essential for placing these systems into orbit.

SpaceX anticipates that space-based data centers, enabled by these satellites, will provide substantial AI capabilities exceeding competitors restricted to terrestrial infrastructure.

The 13th Starship test conducted in July was characterized as successful. SpaceX indicated that mission data would inform whether a catch attempt would proceed on the subsequent flight, though Musk’s recent communication confirms that schedule has been extended.

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