SpaceX (SPCX) Shares Sink Amid Starship Setbacks and Bearish Analyst Call

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

Shares of SpaceX declined approximately 2.5% to $115.26 on Friday following yet another postponement of its Starship test mission
HSBC launched coverage with a Hold recommendation and $115 price objective, diverging from the prevailing optimism on Wall Street
The 13th Starship mission has faced two consecutive delays — initially due to propulsion system complications, followed by adverse meteorological conditions
Investors betting against the company have accumulated roughly $15.5 billion in unrealized gains following the June public offering
The company’s inaugural quarterly earnings announcement is scheduled for August 4, with analysts focusing heavily on Starlink subscriber expansion

Shares of SpaceX tumbled 2.5% to reach $115.26 during Friday’s morning session, pressured by consecutive Starship mission postponements and an unexpected Hold recommendation from HSBC’s Nicolas Cote-Colisson, who established a $115 price objective for the aerospace company.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The shares have plummeted approximately 50% from their peak of $225.64 and currently trade 12% beneath the $135 IPO price established in June.

The company’s 13th Starship orbital test has been postponed on two separate occasions. The initial launch window on July 17 was terminated when multiple Raptor propulsion units on the Super Heavy rocket booster encountered ignition failures. The subsequent July 23 attempt was canceled because weather patterns compromised visual monitoring of the vehicle’s thermal protection system.

SpaceX has subsequently swapped out several Raptor engines and performed supplementary ground verification procedures. Another launch window was established for Friday evening, with coverage available through spacex.com and on X.

During this mission, the booster’s primary goals include a successful liftoff, stage separation maneuver, boostback burn sequence, and controlled descent to a designated location offshore in the Gulf of America. The spacecraft’s upper stage will endeavor to release 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit and validate an orbital engine restart capability before executing a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

HSBC Charts Different Course From Wall Street Consensus

HSBC’s Hold recommendation stands in stark contrast to prevailing sentiment. As of Friday morning, 28 out of 37 analysts covering the stock — approximately 76% — maintained Buy recommendations. The consensus price objective hovers around $237 per share. For context, typical Buy-rating ratios across S&P 500 components range from 55% to 60%.

Cote-Colisson recognized SpaceX‘s achievements but advised investors to exercise caution. He highlighted potential downward pressure on shares as early backers’ lockup restrictions lapse in the months following the June public debut.

The upcoming August 4 earnings disclosure represents the next critical milestone. The analyst emphasized that SpaceX must demonstrate robust expansion in its Starlink division to support upward momentum in the share price.

Bears Dominate Trading Activity Following IPO

Bearish investors have maintained aggressive positions. Roughly $15.5 billion in mark-to-market gains have been generated since the public offering, with approximately 360 million SpaceX shares — representing about 56% of the freely available float — currently borrowed by short sellers.

Following two consecutive surges exceeding 19% in the sessions immediately after the IPO, SpaceX stock has declined in 17 of the last 26 trading days. This includes a punishing seven-session decline that concluded Tuesday, immediately followed by a 6.7% plunge on Wednesday.

Alphabet revealed a substantial SpaceX investment this week, reporting holdings valued at approximately $94.1 billion as of the conclusion of June — although the subsequent depreciation in SpaceX’s stock price has diminished the present market value of that investment.

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 operations have maintained more consistent execution. The company successfully deployed 24 Starlink satellites from its California facility on July 21, just one day following an uncommon last-moment launch termination.

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