SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Faces $23.6 Billion Short Bet Before Earnings

TLDR

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SpaceX stock traded near $117 ahead of its first quarterly earnings report.
Short bets reached about $23.6 billion, surpassing Tesla’s nominal short interest.
Short sellers controlled more than 32% of SpaceX’s public float.
Investors will watch Starlink revenue, AI spending, operating costs, and future guidance.
About 900 million restricted shares could become eligible for sale after earnings.

SpaceX (SPCX) stock rose more than 2% on Tuesday as investors prepared for the company’s first quarterly report since its June listing. Shares traded near $117 after Monday’s 5% gain and rebound from near $100.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The earnings release and an approaching share unlock have drawn heavy short selling. S3 Partners data placed bearish bets near $23.6 billion, above Tesla’s short interest. Short sellers controlled about 206 million shares, equal to roughly 32% of the tradable float.

SpaceX Stock Faces First Earnings Test

SpaceX will publish second-quarter results after the market closes on August 4. Investors will watch Starlink revenue, launch activity, operating costs, AI spending, and management’s outlook for capital needs.

The company combines space operations with xAI projects, including large computing systems. These projects require high spending, while Starlink remains a central source of revenue and cash flow.

SpaceX carries a valuation above $1 trillion. Its sales multiple remains far above those of established aerospace and defense companies, increasing pressure on management to show growth and a clearer path toward profit.

SpaceX will face its lock-up expiration on August 6, two trading days after the earnings release. About 911 million insider shares could become eligible for sale under the staggered plan.

The IPO offered only a small part of the company’s total shares. SpaceX had about 639 million tradable shares after listing, so the new supply could more than double the float.

Eligible shareholders are not required to sell. However, the larger supply may increase trading volume and volatility as employees, early investors, and institutions decide whether to hold or reduce positions.

Short Squeeze Risk Remains

Heavy short interest can add selling pressure, but it can also create conditions for a short squeeze. Short sellers may need to buy shares quickly when prices rise, adding demand.

A stronger earnings report, better guidance, or limited insider selling could force bearish traders to close positions. A weak report or large insider sales could instead support the short case.

Elon Musk has warned institutions against holding long-term short positions in SpaceX. His comments do not determine market direction, but they add attention to a crowded trade.

The next two sessions will test demand for SpaceX stock as financial results meet an increase in available shares. Investors will compare operating performance with the company’s spending plans and valuation.

The stock may remain volatile because earnings, short covering, and shareholder sales can move the price differently. The unlock raises supply, while strong results could attract buyers and pressure short sellers.

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