Key Takeaways
- Glenn Thum of Phillip Securities maintains a Sell rating on SPCX with a $75 target, suggesting a potential 47% decline from current prices.
- NYU professor Scott Galloway described SpaceX as “crazy overvalued,” estimating fair value between $10 and $30 per share.
- The company delivered exceptional Q2 results, with revenue climbing 92% to $7.8 billion, triggering a 17% stock surge.
- Following resistance near $149, SPCX has declined more than 4%, currently hovering around $140.
- Despite bearish voices, most Wall Street analysts project upside, with a consensus target of $232.35 over 12 months.
SpaceX (SPCX) is currently changing hands around $140.50 following a dramatic post-earnings surge that stalled near the $149 resistance zone. The stock has shed over 4% in recent trading sessions, and a growing chorus of skeptics believes further declines lie ahead.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
On August 17, Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum maintained his Sell recommendation with a 12-month target of $75. If realized, this would mark an approximately 47% decline from present trading levels.
Thum’s bearish stance stems from concerns about substantial capital outlays, concentrated exposure to artificial intelligence customers, and the short-term nature of certain cloud service agreements. According to the analyst, a positive revaluation would require evidence of extended customer contract commitments.
SpaceX’s second quarter 2026 performance was undeniably impressive. Overall revenue soared 92% compared to the prior year, reaching $7.8 billion. Connectivity segment revenue increased 66% to $4.3 billion, propelled by Starlink’s subscriber base doubling to 12 million. The AI division experienced explosive growth of 247%, generating $2.6 billion in revenue from expanded cloud infrastructure and service contracts.
Skepticism Intensifies Among Critics
Scott Galloway, a marketing professor at NYU and prominent podcast host, expressed even more extreme bearishness than Thum. During a podcast episode released Monday, he estimated SpaceX’s fair valuation at $10 to $30 per share.
“It’s still crazy overvalued,” Galloway stated. “I think this is a $10 to $30 stock.”
His bearish scenario implies SPCX is worth less than 7% of its current market price. Even his optimistic estimate suggests the stock should trade at approximately one-fifth of present levels.
Galloway highlighted the restricted public float as a major factor behind the initial price spike. With only 4% to 5% of SpaceX shares available for public trading at the IPO, supply remained severely constrained. The company’s rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index subsequently forced passive funds to accumulate shares.
He also questioned the timing of a $25 billion bond issuance executed shortly after going public, particularly given SpaceX already maintained $100.8 billion in cash reserves. According to Galloway, this financing move suggests the company’s expansion strategy relies increasingly on debt.
Additional Critics Join the Debate
George Noble, a former portfolio manager at Fidelity Overseas Fund, described SpaceX as among “the best shorts in the market.” He forecasts a potential 50% decline by year-end, placing fair value around $30 per share.
“Grandma’s 401(k) now owns a $2 trillion company at roughly 90 times revenues. That’s outrageous,” Noble commented.
Noble similarly criticized the expedited timeline for SPCX’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion, suggesting the decision created artificial buying pressure.
Despite his bearish outlook, Galloway acknowledged he would avoid shorting SPCX. He recognized that Elon Musk’s promotional capabilities could drive the stock higher independent of underlying fundamentals, and that SPCX might exhibit meme-stock characteristics if Musk announced another high-profile initiative.
The consensus view from Wall Street analysts remains considerably more optimistic. Among 31 analysts monitored by TipRanks, the mean 12-month price objective stands at $232.35, implying potential gains of 64%. The most bullish analyst maintains an $800 price target.
At publication time, SPCX commands a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 trillion.
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