Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares advanced 0.8% to $141.14 during Monday’s premarket session before a significant share unlock event on Aug. 20
- Approximately 319 million insider-owned shares will become tradable on Aug. 20, with around 4.9 billion shares unlocking through year-end
- Shares had dropped under $105 in July before recovering following robust Q2 financial results released Aug. 4
- UBS maintained its Buy recommendation with a $210 price objective, emphasizing Starlink expansion and femtocell technology opportunities
- The company reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, representing 92% year-over-year growth, while AI-focused revenue jumped 247% to $1.6 billion
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) increased 0.8% to reach $141.14 during Monday’s premarket session, positioning ahead of a substantial insider share unlock scheduled for Aug. 20.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Approximately 319 million shares currently held by founding investors and company insiders will enter the market for trading later this week. This release represents one segment of a phased unlock structure SpaceX established after its initial public offering in early June.
The company secured approximately $75 billion through the sale of roughly 556 million newly issued shares to public investors, representing a modest portion of the total 13.2 billion outstanding shares.
Market supply and demand forces have significantly influenced trading patterns since the IPO. Investor hesitation ahead of potential selling pressure from early stakeholders drove shares below $105 in July, substantially beneath the $135 IPO pricing.
A dramatic recovery occurred following SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings announcement on Aug. 4. The stock surged 23% during that trading week, followed by an additional 5% gain the subsequent week, ending a four-week decline.
Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, marking a 92% increase compared to the previous year. AI-focused revenue emerged as a highlight, climbing 247% to $1.6 billion, propelled by new Cloud Services Agreements.
UBS Maintains Buy Rating at $210 Price Objective
UBS analyst John Hodulik confirmed a Buy rating and $210 price objective on Monday. He emphasized SpaceX’s dual positioning as both a leading cloud infrastructure provider and cutting-edge AI model developer as justification for his optimistic outlook.
The investment firm anticipates an acceleration in growth as SpaceX achieves sufficient deployment of V3 fixed broadband satellites, projected for sometime in 2026. UBS currently forecasts U.S. Starlink subscribers expanding from 3 million currently to 6 million by December 2027, and reaching 20 million by December 2031.
SpaceX disclosed a femtocell initiative during its earnings presentation, involving deployment of compact radios integrated into next-generation Starlink terminals. This strategy aims to provide coverage in areas where the V2 mobile LEO constellation falls short, including densely populated urban environments and interior office spaces.
UBS identified two critical success factors: obtaining low-band spectrum access and achieving necessary deployment concentration. Possible spectrum acquisition opportunities include 800 MHz frequencies sold by T-Mobile to Grain, 700 MHz E Block spectrum owned by Echostar, and 900 MHz bands controlled by NextNav and Anterix.
Additional Share Unlocks Scheduled Through December
Analyst sentiment remains divided. Phillip Securities maintained a Sell rating with a $75 price objective, expressing reservations about revenue sustainability despite impressive growth figures.
Morgan Stanley sustained an Overweight rating with a $300 price objective, while Mizuho continued an Outperform rating, highlighting advancements with the Grok 4.6 AI model.
SpaceX also finalized its $60 billion all-stock purchase of Anysphere, which now operates as a fully owned subsidiary.
Over 700 million shares will unlock in September, with an additional 650 million becoming available in October. Through year-end, approximately 4.9 billion shares will enter circulation, representing roughly 70% of shares not controlled by Elon Musk.
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