Key Takeaways
- SpaceX (SPCX) launched its IPO at $135 on June 12, reached an intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16, and currently hovers near $145
- Shares have declined 35% from their record high while remaining above the initial offering price of $135
- The company completed a $60B all-stock acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor during the height of its market rally
- Morgan Stanley set an Overweight rating with a $300 target; Goldman Sachs assigned a Buy rating at $205
- The company’s inaugural earnings release is scheduled for early August, aligning with the expiration of employee stock lock-up restrictions
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) set its IPO price at $135 per share on June 12, securing approximately $75 billion in what became the largest initial public offering in market history. The stock debuted at $150 and finished its first trading session at $160.95. Data from Vanda Research shows retail investors poured a record-breaking $118 million into SPCX on opening day.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The upward momentum continued beyond the first day. SPCX reached an intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16, temporarily elevating SpaceX’s market capitalization above both Amazon and Microsoft. Coinciding with this milestone, the company revealed its $60 billion all-stock purchase of Anysphere, creator of the AI coding tool Cursor.
The strategic timing of this acquisition attracted significant attention. By leveraging its inflated stock price at the rally’s apex, SpaceX essentially acquired Cursor at a substantially reduced real cost. Samuel Kerr from Mergermarket observed, “It showed a level of market sophistication that almost no other issuer has.”
CEO Elon Musk amplified market enthusiasm on June 14 by projecting SpaceX could achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. This forecast stands in sharp contrast to the company’s 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion and a reported net loss of $4.94 billion.
Momentum Reverses
The stock encountered resistance in late June. On June 22, SpaceX announced plans to raise at least $20 billion through a bond offering to finance AI and computing infrastructure expansion. Despite the seemingly positive development, SPCX plummeted over 16% that session, closing at $154.60.
Inclusion in two major indices — FTSE Russell in late June and Nasdaq-100 on July 7 — attracted some institutional capital. Approximately 200 ETFs had accumulated positions by June’s end. However, these additions proved insufficient to halt the downward trajectory.
When SpaceX’s Starlink division announced price reductions in Memphis, shares dropped 8% in one session. This decline highlighted what analysts describe as a disconnect between SpaceX’s AI narrative and its core revenue streams, which remain predominantly dependent on launch services and satellite operations.
By July 10, SPCX was trading at $145.30 — representing a 35% decline from its peak and approximately 18% below its debut closing price.
Looking Ahead
The IPO quiet period concluded on July 7, prompting a wave of analyst coverage. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and established a $300 price objective. Goldman Sachs began coverage with a Buy recommendation and a $205 target.
Skepticism exists among some market watchers. Seeking Alpha analyst Bohdan Kucheriavyi characterized the $2 trillion valuation as “unsustainable,” citing projected revenue below $40 billion for the current year and impending insider selling following lock-up expiration.
The lock-up period’s end is anticipated to align with SpaceX’s maiden public earnings announcement, expected in early August. Employees compensated with equity will gain selling privileges, potentially introducing additional selling pressure.
CFRA analyst Keith Snyder projects further downside to approximately $115, based on the company’s existing financial metrics. At that valuation, SpaceX would command a market cap of roughly $1.5 trillion.
Investors who secured shares at the IPO price maintain positive returns. Those who entered positions during the initial week’s rally face unrealized losses.
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