SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Plunges Over 50% as Nearly 1 Billion Shares Unlock

Key Highlights

Table of Contents

Nearly 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading Thursday, exceeding 140% of the initial public float
Shares declined 12% Wednesday even after surpassing Q1 revenue projections with $7.8B versus expected $6.8B
Current trading price reflects a decline of more than 50% from the June 16 high of $225.64, falling beneath the $135 debut price
An additional batch of 455.8 million shares remains restricted due to current price levels below IPO valuation
Over 4 billion shares will become tradable before 2026 concludes; Musk’s holdings unlock in June 2027

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) were changing hands at approximately $112.22 during Thursday’s premarket session, climbing 3.7% as the company’s initial significant lockup period concluded. Wednesday’s closing price stood at $108.27, representing a more than 10% decline for that trading day.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

This lockup expiration releases as many as 911.5 million shares previously held by company insiders and initial backers. This substantial block amounts to over 140% of the equity that became publicly available following the initial public offering.

Prior to Thursday’s trading, the equity had plummeted more than 50% from its all-time peak of $225.64 reached on June 16. Trading beneath the $135 offering price carries specific implications under the lockup agreement.

Due to the current valuation sitting below the IPO level, an additional portion consisting of up to 455.8 million shares continues to be restricted. This provision was incorporated into the original lockup structure.

Thursday marks the initial genuine window for company personnel and early-stage investors to liquidate their positions into actual currency since December 2025. Financial consultant Evan Mills, who advises current and former SpaceX team members, stated directly: “This is the first real opportunity to turn paper wealth into real, hard cash that they can actually spend.”

The company implemented a lockup framework featuring nine progressive phases instead of a single 180-day threshold. This approach aimed to prevent a concentrated wave of shares flooding the marketplace simultaneously.

Recent Financial Performance Analysis

This share unlock arrives shortly following SpaceX’s inaugural public financial disclosure. Quarterly revenue reached $7.8 billion, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $6.8 billion.

The artificial intelligence segment delivered an unexpected positive performance. It generated $1.1 billion in Ebitda, contrasting with analyst forecasts predicting a modest deficit.

Regardless of these favorable results, shares fell 12% during Wednesday’s session. Such negative price movement following strong financial data may appear counterintuitive, yet several factors provide clarity.

SpaceX experienced an approximately 16% appreciation across Monday and Tuesday leading into the earnings announcement. Much of that upward momentum likely stemmed from short position holders closing their bets in advance of the results, rather than genuine buying interest.

Short selling activity remains substantially elevated. According to Bloomberg citing S3 Partners analysis, roughly 35% of the publicly available float is currently held in short positions. The substantial IPO-related share overhang represents a primary rationale for bearish positioning.

Future Share Release Timeline

The scheduled unlocking of restricted shares extends well beyond Thursday’s event. An additional 319 million shares are scheduled for release on August 12, marking the 70th day following the amended filing date. Another identical tranche of 319 million shares follows 20 days thereafter.

Before 2026 ends, more than 4 billion shares will gain trading eligibility. The complete 180-day restriction period extends into early December, encompassing up to 5.33 billion shares overall.

CEO Elon Musk maintains control of 6.4 billion shares when including equity compensation awards. His specially extended restriction period lasts until June 2027.

J.P. Morgan equity analyst Doug Anmuth observed in a client communication that market participants have been adjusting their holdings in anticipation of Thursday’s milestone, potentially diminishing the immediate selling force once shares become freely tradable.

S3 Partners tracking confirmed that 35% of the available public shares remain in short positions as of the current week.

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