SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Slides 3% as IPO Momentum Fades, KeyBanc Raises Valuation Concerns

Key Takeaways

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SPCX shares are sliding over 3% in early Monday trading, continuing a retreat from post-IPO highs reached earlier this month.
Shares launched at $135 on June 12 and rallied strongly before dropping approximately 9% across the previous two trading sessions.
Despite recent declines, SPCX remained 37% above its debut price through Thursday’s market close.
KeyBanc launched coverage with Sector Weight, highlighting concerns over valuation multiples of 29x P/S and 71x EV/EBITDA.
Wall Street consensus shows six Buy recommendations, with CFRA standing alone with a Sell rating.

SpaceX (SPCX) shares are experiencing a premarket decline exceeding 3% on Monday, hovering near $178 following consecutive losses of 5% and 3.6% on Wednesday and Thursday of last week.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Shares reached $185 by Thursday’s closing bell — maintaining a 37% premium over the $135 IPO price — though the initial excitement surrounding the public debut appears to be waning. Many retail investors who entered positions following the June 12 listing have watched their profits largely disappear.

The company’s public offering became one of the most anticipated market events in recent history. Market capitalization briefly exceeded both Amazon and Microsoft during the initial trading days before retreating below both tech giants.

Financial reports show a $4.9 billion net loss for 2025, with an additional $4.28 billion loss recorded in Q1 2026. Optimistic shareholders are wagering on Elon Musk’s track record of building profitable ventures over time, despite current red ink.

Musk maintains a 42% ownership stake, subject to lock-up restrictions through June 2027. With approximately 5% of the total 13 billion shares available in the initial offering, trading volume remains constrained.

KeyBanc Raises Red Flags on Premium Pricing

KeyBanc launched coverage Monday with a Sector Weight designation — essentially a neutral stance. Analysts acknowledged SpaceX as “the dominant leader in space launch and space-adjacent verticals” while noting that current pricing offers balanced risk and reward.

Trading at approximately 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA based on 2027 projections, KeyBanc noted SPCX commands a significant premium compared to competitors in space technology, artificial intelligence, and communications sectors.

The research team identified Starship development as the critical factor to monitor. This next-generation launch vehicle is essential for deploying Starlink V3 satellites, reducing orbital delivery costs, and ultimately enabling space-based data centers. Starship’s thirteenth flight test is scheduled for June 29.

KeyBanc indicated it takes “a conservative approach” regarding development schedules, characterizing the coming 12–24 months as a “prove it phase.”

Revenue Stream Analysis

SpaceX operates through three primary divisions. Connectivity — anchored by Starlink — contributed 61% of 2025 revenue, producing approximately $11.4 billion with a robust 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. This division currently drives profitability.

The AI division, encompassing Grok and xAI operations following the February 2026 integration, continues operating at a loss. However, it has secured substantial contracts: an agreement with Anthropic valued at approximately $1.25 billion monthly, plus a separate Google partnership generating $920 million per month.

KeyBanc forecasts AI division revenue could surge to $50.6 billion by 2027. The challenge? Grok currently captures merely 3.1% of U.S. business adoption, trailing far behind Anthropic’s 41% and OpenAI’s 39.5% market share.

Current Wall Street consensus includes six Buy ratings on SPCX. CFRA remains the only firm maintaining a Sell recommendation. The upcoming Starship flight 13 on June 29 will serve as an important near-term milestone for investors.

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