SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Slides 4% Despite Bernstein's Bullish $239 Price Target

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

Bernstein maintains Outperform rating with $239 price target on SpaceX (SPCX) following China’s Long March 10B booster recovery
Shares declined approximately 4% Monday, hovering around $145.30, approaching its 52-week low point
China’s rocket landing occurred half a year sooner than Bernstein’s forecast, though booster reuse hasn’t been proven yet
SpaceX has maintained a Falcon 9 booster reuse program for almost ten years and executed 165 launches in the previous year
Wall Street’s consensus price target on SPCX stands at $246.43, representing potential 76% gains from present valuation

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) tumbled approximately 4% during Monday’s opening session, settling near $145.30, dangerously close to its yearly low. The decline followed China’s weekend announcement of a successful Long March 10B rocket booster recovery operation.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned remained unfazed by the development. He maintained his Outperform stance with a $239 price objective on SPCX, indicating potential gains exceeding 70% from current trading levels.

Harned had just launched his Buy recommendation on SPCX the previous week. His Monday commentary reinforces that bullish position.

On July 10, China successfully recovered the Long March 10B first-stage booster using an offshore recovery platform, a test flight that invited inevitable comparisons to SpaceX’s proven Falcon 9 booster recovery operations. The achievement represents meaningful progress in China’s reusable rocket development efforts.

While Harned recognized the accomplishment, he provided important perspective. The landing occurred approximately six months earlier than his projections suggested, yet he believes the technological divide between China and SpaceX remains substantial.

How China’s Achievement Compares to SpaceX’s Capabilities

The critical difference Harned emphasizes: China has successfully landed a booster, but hasn’t yet relaunched a recovered unit. These represent fundamentally different technical challenges.

SpaceX has been recovering and relaunching Falcon 9 boosters for nearly a decade. Throughout 2025, the company executed 165 launches. This operational cadence stems from years of validated reuse technology, not merely a single successful landing.

China would need to prove consistent relaunch operations and increase production capacity before matching that launch frequency. Harned views this as requiring several years at a minimum.

A hardware distinction deserves attention as well. Long March 10 enables only first-stage reuse. SpaceX’s Starship architecture targets complete reusability — both stages — although that full capability remains unproven in operational service.

Analyst Community Maintains Strong Confidence in SPCX

Beyond Bernstein, numerous analysts have issued favorable ratings since SpaceX’s public offering.

Raymond James established a Wall Street-leading $800 target, suggesting approximately 440% upside potential. Deutsche Bank launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and $255 objective. Macquarie and Clear Street both assigned Outperform and Buy ratings respectively, with price targets of $250 and $217.

According to TipRanks, the consensus rating stands at Strong Buy, derived from 22 Buy recommendations, four Hold ratings, and one Sell. The Street’s average price objective reaches $246.43, implying a 76% appreciation from Monday’s share price.

China continues advancing its broader space program aggressively. The nation has submitted applications to the ITU for deploying over 200,000 satellites in low Earth orbit and is constructing a lunar research facility.

Regardless of these competitive developments, SPCX stock’s consensus analyst target continues trading more than $100 above current market levels.

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