SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Tumbles as Analysts Warn 100x Sales Multiple Is 'Catastrophic'

Key Highlights

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SpaceX shares slipped 0.4% in early Thursday trading following release of two skeptical analyst reports
Daiwa Securities initiated coverage with a neutral Hold rating and set a $175 price objective
Kailash Concepts highlighted the company’s approximately 100x trailing revenue multiple, warning of potentially “catastrophic” investment outcomes
Shares have retreated roughly 22% from their post-IPO high
Expiring lockup restrictions on insider shares could intensify selling pressure in coming months

Shares of SpaceX experienced modest declines in Thursday’s premarket session, falling to $157.54, following the publication of two analyst reports that questioned the company’s elevated valuation metrics.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Daiwa Securities analyst Jonathan Kees kicked off coverage with a Hold recommendation and established a $175 price objective. While not an outright sell recommendation, the neutral stance signals limited upside potential from current levels.

A more pointed critique emerged from Kailash Concepts, an investment research firm that combines quantitative methodologies with fundamental analysis. Their assessment pulled no punches.

Kailash highlighted that SpaceX currently trades at approximately 100 times trailing twelve-month revenue — a metric they characterize as alarming. Their historical analysis demonstrates that companies valued above 10 times sales underperform the S&P 500 approximately 67% of the time across three-year periods and typically lag the benchmark by over 30%.

“To state the obvious, 100 times sales is a valuation that is ten times higher than 10 times sales,” the research firm noted.

Of the 13 analysts currently covering SpaceX, seven maintain Buy ratings. Price targets span from $165 to $310. Significantly, none of the major investment banks that underwrote the IPO have published their initial ratings yet — those are expected within several weeks.

Historical IPO Trends

SpaceX executed the largest initial public offering on record, with shares surging 19% on debut day — precisely matching the average first-day performance for IPOs dating back to 1980, according to data from University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.

However, historical patterns suggest challenges ahead. Among the 15 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006, shares declined an average of approximately 50% from offering prices at some point during their first year. Average twelve-month returns for these mega-IPOs registered losses around 33%.

The stock has already pulled back about 22% from its peak. If historical precedent holds, additional weakness may materialize.

One potential catalyst: SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index following the July 6, 2026 close. Such additions typically generate buying pressure from ETFs and passive index funds required to maintain complete index representation.

Upcoming Lockup Expirations

The more significant concern for shareholders may emerge following the company’s earnings release.

After SpaceX reports second-quarter financial results, anticipated in mid-August, insiders will be permitted to sell 20% of their eligible holdings. That percentage increases if shares trade at least 30% above the IPO price for five out of ten consecutive trading sessions prior to the Q2 announcement.

Additional time-based lockup releases allow insiders to divest up to 7% of their positions at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the IPO. Following third-quarter earnings, an additional 28% could become available for sale.

Kailash also referenced Elon Musk’s execution history, observing that Tesla’s autonomous driving capabilities materialized considerably later than original timelines suggested. They characterized SpaceX’s $2.2 trillion market capitalization as heavily dependent on plans to deploy up to one million orbital AI data center satellites in low Earth orbit within two to three years.

SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for the previous fiscal year. The company declined to provide comment when contacted.

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