SpaceX (SPCX) Stock: Wall Street Analysts Divided With Price Targets From $63 to $401

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

SPCX shares advanced 1% in Thursday’s premarket session to $193.75, recovering from Wednesday’s inaugural decline that saw the stock fall 5% to $191.82
Shares maintain a 42% premium over the June 12 IPO price of $135
The Zephirin Group established a $310 target, highlighting constrained supply with just 640 million shares available for trading
Arete’s Andrew Beale leads with the most optimistic forecast at $401, implying a ~$5.3 trillion valuation
Analyst coverage spans a wide range from $63 (Morningstar’s bearish view) to $401 (Arete’s bullish case), averaging $156

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) demonstrated resilience Thursday morning, recovering from their inaugural decline recorded the previous session. The stock advanced 1% to $193.75 during premarket hours, rebounding from Wednesday’s 5% retreat that concluded at $191.82.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The recent pullback hasn’t erased SPCX’s substantial gains since going public. Shares still trade 42% above the $135 IPO reference point. The stock had previously surged to $225.64—representing a 67% jump—across three straight positive sessions before Wednesday’s reversal.

The Wednesday decline coincided with broader market weakness. The Nasdaq retreated 1.3% following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, while retail sales figures suggested weakening consumer discretionary expenditures.

Thursday’s recovery gained momentum from two fresh analyst opinions. The Zephirin Group highlighted what it termed an “underappreciated supply-demand imbalance,” noting that approximately 640 million shares remain accessible for trading. This limited float creates challenges for over 300 index-tracking funds seeking SPCX exposure. The firm assigned a $310 valuation.

Arete analyst Andrew Beale subsequently issued an even more optimistic outlook with a $401 target alongside a Buy recommendation. Beale identifies significant growth potential in Starlink v3 satellites, which offer enhanced size and capabilities compared to existing models. The caveat: these satellites necessitate Starship launches, SpaceX‘s advanced rocket system that has yet to achieve full commercial operations.

Beale’s $401 projection implies a valuation near $5.3 trillion, representing approximately 80 times projected 2027 revenue.

Optimistic Analyst Perspectives

Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan characterized SpaceX as “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.” Horan envisions a potential $10 trillion addressable opportunity by 2035, anchored by orbital data center infrastructure as the primary catalyst.

KGI Securities launched coverage with an outperform designation and $227 target. Wolfe Research entered at $175, similarly rating shares outperform.

Cautious Analyst Views

Not all Wall Street observers share the enthusiasm at current valuation levels. CFRA analyst Keith Snyder assigned a sell rating alongside a $115 target. Snyder’s primary apprehension centers on SpaceX’s substantial dependence on Starship, which remains absent from full commercial deployment.

Snyder cautioned that Starship postponements or technical complications “could ripple across nearly every major growth initiative.” He additionally raised red flags regarding the company’s capital-intensive business structure and free cash flow generation.

Morningstar presents the most pessimistic outlook at $63, incorporating three distinct scenarios for the AI segment. Even under their optimistic “moonshot” projection, SpaceX would require a 77% probability of clearing engineering obstacles and executing multiple weekly Starship missions to warrant the $135 IPO valuation.

The six analysts currently tracking SPCX reveal an average consensus target of $156—significantly beneath the stock’s recent trading level near $208 based on the most current information.

With options markets now operational and passive index funds accumulating positions, supply-demand forces are exerting considerable influence on near-term price movements.

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