Key Takeaways
- Strategy executed a sale of 32 BTC during the May 26–31 window but didn’t announce it publicly until June 1
- More than $79 million in wagers were placed on a Polymarket prediction asking whether Strategy divested Bitcoin by the May 31 cutoff
- Polymarket ruled the outcome as “No” since no public confirmation existed before the May 31 deadline expired
- Bettors have split into three distinct factions debating whether transaction timing or announcement timing should determine the outcome
- UMA token holders hold ultimate authority on the resolution — and they’ve contradicted Polymarket decisions in the past
Michael Saylor’s firm Strategy completed a transaction involving 32 Bitcoin sometime between May 26 and May 31. This fact isn’t contested. What has become intensely controversial is whether a Polymarket wager valued at $79 million should settle favorably based on that transaction.
The prediction market posed what appeared to be an uncomplicated question: did Strategy divest any Bitcoin before the May 31 deadline? The response seemed obvious — until the corporation’s formal disclosure didn’t surface until June 1.
That single-day discrepancy has fractured the prediction platform’s community into three warring factions, with enormous sums hanging in the balance.
Three Camps Emerge Over Market Resolution
The first faction contends the market should settle as “Yes.” Strategy’s official regulatory document explicitly states the transaction occurred “during the period May 26, 2026 to May 31, 2026.” Since the actual sale transpired within the specified timeframe, they maintain the correct answer is affirmative.
The second camp insists the market must settle as “No.” Their reasoning centers on the absence of any verified information about the transaction before the May 31 deadline concluded. According to their interpretation, only information verifiable before 11:59 PM on May 31 should factor into the resolution.
A third, less prominent faction believes the contract language was insufficiently precise to permit clean resolution. They advocate that settlement should have been postponed entirely until Strategy’s official filing became public.
Polymarket’s Position and UMA’s Role
Polymarket aligned with the “No” interpretation. The platform modified the market description to clarify that “no information from MSTR, on-chain data, or consensus of credible reporting confirmed that MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin within the market’s timeframe.”
The service emphasized that any verification revealed beyond the designated period “does not qualify.” Probability for a “Yes” resolution plummeted from 81% to practically zero.
Yet Polymarket doesn’t possess final authority over the outcome. That power rests with Polymarket dispute resolution partner UMA, whose token holders cast votes to adjudicate contentious contracts.
The two organizations have clashed previously. During 2024, UMA determined that Barron Trump had no connection to the DJT memecoin. Polymarket rejected that ruling and issued refunds to “Yes” participants regardless.
Currently, both entities appear united on the “No” resolution. A secondary dispute vote was scheduled for 12:00 AM UTC Wednesday.
Context Behind Strategy’s Transaction
Strategy’s Bitcoin divestment marked a dramatic departure from its longstanding commitment to never liquidating holdings. Saylor floated the possibility during a May 5 quarterly earnings discussion, characterizing the potential sale as a way to “inoculate” markets against widespread fear.
Bitcoin’s price declined 2.5% to $70,815 in the immediate hours following the June 1 announcement. The cryptocurrency has since rebounded partially to $71,200.
Several participants impacted by the market’s resolution expressed dissatisfaction on social platforms. “Polymarket should trade truth, not technicalities,” one frustrated user commented.
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