Key Takeaways
- Shares of Tesla declined approximately 1% on Tuesday, hovering around the $354 mark
- Analysts anticipate Q3 deliveries will reach approximately 463,000 vehicles, representing a 7% year-over-year decline
- JPMorgan revised its Q3 projection downward to 482,000 vehicles, citing softness in Chinese and American markets
- Chinese wholesale figures increased 19% annually, though local retail sales dropped 21%
- The company postponed its Roadster unveiling by two weeks to October 15, blaming anticipated severe weather
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) declined roughly 1% during Tuesday’s session, hovering around the $354 level. The pullback occurred as market participants await the electric vehicle manufacturer’s Q3 delivery figures, anticipated to arrive within days.
Current analyst consensus points to approximately 463,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3. Should that projection materialize, it would represent a 7% decrease from the 497,000 units the company reported in the same period last year.
The prior year’s Q3 performance benefited from the availability of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax incentive, which was still in effect. Without that subsidy this year, comparisons become more challenging.
Despite these headwinds, Tesla has managed to mitigate some impact. The automaker has captured additional market share within the domestic electric vehicle segment throughout this year.
Performance in European markets has strengthened as well. The Shanghai Gigafactory has ramped up exports to international destinations, providing some offset to other weaknesses.
Geographic Performance Breakdown
In a client memo this week, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta provided insight into regional performance. European Union registrations declined roughly 9% on a year-over-year basis.
Markets like France and Germany demonstrated resilience, while countries including the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain weighed down overall European performance. The continental results present a mixed picture.
The Chinese market presented contrasting dynamics. Combined wholesale volumes for July and August, which include exports, climbed 19% compared to last year.
Export shipments from China surged 92% year-over-year during this timeframe. Meanwhile, domestic Chinese retail sales are estimated to have contracted by 21% over the identical period.
JPMorgan reduced its Q3 delivery forecast to 482,000 vehicles. The investment bank attributed this adjustment to weakness observed in both American and Chinese markets.
One bright spot for Tesla remains its supervised Full Self-Driving technology. The company disclosed that FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million by Q2’s conclusion, representing a 56% increase year-over-year.
The majority of these subscribers presumably reside in the United States. Favorable feedback regarding the software may have provided support for domestic sales throughout the quarter.
Roadster Unveiling Postponement
Tesla’s Q3 delivery announcement is anticipated Friday. This timing follows closely after the company postponed its highly anticipated Roadster reveal ceremony.
The showcase was initially scheduled for Thursday, October 1. On Monday, Tesla announced the event would be rescheduled to October 15.
“We’ve been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted and because this event can only be held outdoors, we’ve made the difficult decision to reschedule,” the company stated in its X platform announcement.
The sudden change surprised many observers. Speculation has emerged that Tesla may require additional preparation time for the vehicle.
The Information published reports weeks ago suggesting the reveal might showcase a special edition Roadster equipped with cold-gas thruster technology developed alongside SpaceX. This variant could allegedly hover or execute brief flights.
An outdoor location would be logical for such a demonstration. Tesla’s official statement regarding weather concerns aligns with these earlier reports.
Tesla originally introduced the next-generation Roadster concept in 2017. Early reservation holders placed deposits expecting deliveries to commence in 2020.
These initial customers have already experienced delays extending several years beyond original timelines. The rescheduled October 15 date adds another fortnight to their extended wait.
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