TLDR
- Arthur Hayes predicts altseason may be delayed until 2025
- Bitcoin needs to breach $70K and Ethereum $4K to trigger altseason
- Benjamin Cowen expects Bitcoin dominance to continue rising in the short term
- Cowen predicts Bitcoin dominance will peak around 60% before declining
- Analysts link cryptocurrency market trends to broader monetary policy
Cryptocurrency market analysts are closely watching Bitcoin and Ethereum price levels, suggesting that a broader rally in alternative cryptocurrencies, known as “altseason,” may be contingent on these top assets reaching specific thresholds.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom Fund, stated in a recent research note that for altseason to begin,
“Bitcoin and Ether need to decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively.”
Hayes believes that a combination of dollar liquidity-inspired rallies in Bitcoin and Ethereum towards the end of the year could create a strong foundation for altcoins to surge.
Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are recovering from a recent market correction that saw the crypto market lose $510 billion in value. Bitcoin fell below a key post-halving growth trajectory when it dipped under $63,000, but recovering this trendline before the end of 2024 could put Bitcoin back on track to reach $100,000, based on previous halving cycles.
Hayes anticipates that the issuance of Treasury bills (T-bills) could inject new liquidity into crypto markets, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to $100,000. “Therefore, taking Bad Gurl Yellen’s word, we know that $301bn of T-bills will be net issued between now and year-end. If this relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly retrace the dump caused by the yen strengthening,” Hayes wrote.
However, Bitcoin is currently struggling to surpass the $60,000 mark, with Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows showing signs of stagnation. On August 12, 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $27.8 million worth of BTC, a decrease from the $89 million in cumulative inflows seen on August 9, according to Farside Investors data.
Benjamin Cowen, another prominent cryptocurrency analyst, offers a different perspective on market dynamics. Cowen asserts that Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise in the short term, regardless of market movements or external factors. He attributes this trend not to news cycles or altcoin activities, but to overarching monetary policy.
— Into The Cryptoverse (@ITC_Crypto) August 12, 2024
“If Bitcoin goes up on its USD pair, Bitcoin dominance will go higher, if Bitcoin goes down on its USD pair, Bitcoin dominance will go higher,” Cowen stated.
He believes this pattern is part of a multi-year cycle where three years of increasing Bitcoin dominance are typically followed by an altseason year.
Cowen predicts that Bitcoin dominance will soon reach its peak, potentially setting the stage for an altcoin season as monetary policy loosens. He anticipates Bitcoin dominance will top out at around 60% before beginning to decline, likely in late 2024 or early 2025.
“Monetary policy is going to loosen up soon and because monetary policy is loosening up soon, it means Bitcoin dominance is going to top soon,” Cowen explained.
Both Hayes and Cowen emphasize the influence of broader economic factors on cryptocurrency markets. Hayes points to the potential impact of T-bill issuance on market liquidity, while Cowen links cryptocurrency trends to changes in monetary policy.
As for specific altcoins, Hayes mentioned Solana (SOL) as a potential beneficiary of the next altseason, suggesting it could rally to $250 if Bitcoin surpasses the $70,000 mark. However, Solana’s price is currently 42% below its all-time high of $259 reached in November 2021.
