Key Highlights
- Bernstein has elevated ASML’s price target from €1,700 to €2,300 while maintaining an “outperform” recommendation
- AI-powered expansion in advanced logic and DRAM manufacturing underpins the bullish thesis
- EUV equipment revenue projected to expand at 30% annually, reaching €42.7 billion in 2030
- Total company revenue forecast at €80 billion by decade’s end, surpassing consensus by 24%
- The firm simultaneously upgraded targets for TSMC, Intel, Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix
Bernstein analysts have significantly increased their price objective for ASML Holding to €2,300 from €1,700, representing a substantial 35% increase, while reaffirming their “outperform” stance on the semiconductor equipment manufacturer.
This upward revision follows a substantial increase in the firm’s revenue projections for ASML, which analysts attribute to what they characterize as “unprecedented AI-driven expansion” across both cutting-edge logic processors and DRAM memory production.
ASML stock has experienced remarkable growth, more than doubling in value throughout the last year. Bernstein’s David Dai has identified the company as his preferred selection within the European semiconductor equipment sector.
The investment firm expanded its target valuation multiple to 40 times forward earnings from the previous 35 times, characterizing this as one standard deviation above historical averages.
Bernstein’s updated forecast for 2027 extreme ultraviolet lithography system deliveries, including next-generation High-NA equipment, now stands at 91 units compared to the prior estimate of 86. The 2028 projection jumped even more dramatically to 113 units from 87.
Dramatic Increase in EUV Revenue Projections
The investment firm now anticipates ASML’s EUV equipment revenue will expand at a 30% compound annual growth rate, climbing to €42.7 billion by 2030. This figure exceeds current market consensus by more than 30%.
Projections for deep ultraviolet systems have also been revised upward, with Bernstein forecasting €20 billion by 2030, compared to €13 billion expected in 2026.
In aggregate, Bernstein predicts ASML will achieve €80 billion in total revenue by 2030 — representing a 20% compound annual growth trajectory and standing 24% above the current market consensus of €64 billion.
Regarding profitability, Bernstein estimates 2028 earnings per share at €67, which they note sits 35% above consensus expectations, with 2030 EPS projected at €97, reflecting a 31% compound annual earnings growth rate.
The firm’s investment thesis emphasizes fundamental strength: while the stock price has doubled, earnings growth has kept pace. The valuation expansion isn’t driven by multiple inflation but by robust business performance.
Rollout Schedule for High-NA Technology
Bernstein outlined its anticipated adoption timeline for High-NA EUV systems across major chipmakers. Memory manufacturers are expected to lead implementation, benefiting from smaller DRAM die sizes that require only single mask exposure.
SK Hynix and Samsung are projected to integrate High-NA into DRAM manufacturing by 2027. Intel is expected to deploy the technology for logic chips in 2028, followed by Samsung’s logic implementation in 2029, with TSMC adopting in 2030.
Bernstein clarified that TSMC’s later adoption schedule doesn’t reflect diminished value proposition for the world’s leading foundry. Instead, analysts attribute the extended timeline to TSMC’s “prudence and conservativeness” when integrating novel manufacturing tools.
Lithography intensity — representing lithography’s proportion of total manufacturing expenses — is forecast to climb from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028, with DRAM production serving as the primary driver.
Bernstein concurrently raised price targets throughout the semiconductor industry: TSMC to $430 from $351, Intel to $100 from $65, Micron to $1,300 from $510, Samsung to 440,000 won from 225,000 won, and SK Hynix to 3,300,000 won from 1,150,000 won.
Potential headwinds identified by Bernstein include margin pressure from EUV commercialization expenses, inventory accumulation in China, weakness in the broader wafer fabrication equipment market, and additional export restrictions that could constrain sales to Chinese customers.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
