The value of bitcoin rose 9 million percent over the last 10 years, an astounding feat that will go down in history as one of the most interesting financial phenomena ever.
And while bitcoin’s had plenty of wild ups and wild downs during its fledgling life, the original cryptocurrency finished off the past decade decidedly on the up and up.
Indeed, the BTC price gained 87 percent in 2019, almost doubling from $3,843 USD to $7,200 on the year. In the same span, the Bitcoin network’s hashrate surged from 40 exahashes per second to 100 exahashes per second, a 150 percent climb.
The year also saw: big companies roll out big products, like Bakkt and its futures products; currency crises in Latin America and increased Sino-U.S. trade relations driving global discussions around BTC’s potentially blooming status as a safe haven asset; a tipping point reached in the rise of pro-Bitcoin politicians; “satoshi” ossified into the English language itself; and Bitcoin’s second-layer scaling solution, Lightning, continues to mature.
And that’s just scratching the surface…
2020 is on the slate now, and speculation throughout the ecosystem is already in full swing as to what’s in store for Bitcoin this year.
And the Bitcoin halving is set to take place this spring, a major point of intrigue that some analysts argue could cause major price activity. Price predictions have recently been flying accordingly — not that they weren’t already with the arrival of the new year!
With no shortage of opinions to consider , let’s take a brief survey of the thoughts swirling around the cryptoeconomy regarding where bitcoin can go this year and beyond.
Nouriel Roubini: $0
- 1 Nouriel Roubini: $0
- 2 Peter Schiff: $1,000, maybe
- 3 BitMEX Research: $2,000 to $15,000
- 4 Andy Cheung: $14,000
- 5 Altcoin Daily: $20,000
- 6 Tom Lee: $25,000 by 2022
- 7 Peter Brandt: perhaps below ~$6,800 before +$50,000
- 8 Antoni Trenchev: $50,000
- 9 PlanB: $55,000
- 10 Tomas Salles: $80,000
- 11 Mark Yusko: $100,000
- 12 Tim Draper: $250,000
- 13 Cameron Winklevoss: $320,000
- 14 John Pfeffer: $700,000
- 15 John McAfee: $1,000,000 (sike!)
- 16 Bitcoin Time Traveler: $1,000,000 by 2021
- 17 Conclusion
- 18 References
Dr. Nouriel Roubini — or “Dr. Doom,” as some call him — is an American economist who’s made a name for himself for, among other things, entrenching himself as bitcoin and cryptocurrency’s biggest and most biting mainstream critic over the years.
With that said, Dr. Roubini has oft said that bitcoin has no fundamental value and will crash to $0 in time. The economist has been a bit quiet lately, but last summer he fired one of his typical salvos, tweeting out “Donald Trump is right about bitcoin.”
It was a reference to President Trump’s blockbuster July 2019 Twitter thread in which the president bashed bitcoin as “not money” and “based on thin air.”
As such, it is, and hasn’t been, a mystery what bitcoin is worth to Dr. Roubini before or in 2020 and later: nada.
Donald Trump is right about bitcoin https://t.co/YbBJsxTsRa
— Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) July 13, 2019
Peter Schiff: $1,000, maybe
“Bitcoin is nearing the neckline of the head-and-shoulders top I pointed out before the Oct 25th 40% pump. The right shoulder is now shrugged and the neckline slanted and parallel to the shoulders. If it breaks the price objective for the dump is $1,000 to complete the pattern.”
Those comments come from Peter Schiff, the American economist, financial commentator, and “goldbug” trader. Schiff’s long been a big critic of bitcoin, and the remarks above come from a Twitter exchange last November.
Therein, Schiff said he thought BTC could potentially be on pace to dump to $1,000. The charts may have changed since then, but one could be forgiven for presuming that Schiff thinks such a selloff could still be in play.
Moreover, Schiff projects that both U.S. stocks and BTC will soon be dropping and that “Bitcoin will fall even faster.”
Continuing the Dec. trend all asset classes are rising except Bitcoin. #Bitcoin may have been the best preforming asset of the last decade, but it's already the worst performing asset of this decade. While I think U.S. stocks will soon drop, I think Bitcoin will fall even faster.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 2, 2020
BitMEX Research: $2,000 to $15,000
The research wing of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX offered their 2020 predictions last Christmas Eve, and they’re quite plausible. The exchange’s thinkers estimated that bitcoin won’t trade below $2,000 or above $15,000 for the year, much like happened in 2019.
BitMEX research also projected that bitcoin’s market dominance rate wouldn’t rise over 75 percent and conversely wouldn’t sink below 30 percent.
– $BTC over $2,000, but also under $15,000
– $BTC dominance under 75%, but also over 30%
– CSW says: 2021 is year the Chinese shutdown BTC mining & 1m of his coins hit the market (Whatever else)
– #MATIC falls in value by over 80% @NemanjaMatic
Happy New Year
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) December 24, 2019
Andy Cheung: $14,000
Here’s an interesting take. Andy Cheung, the head of operations at Chinese crypto exchange giant OKEx, has predicted bitcoin will touch $14,000 in 2020 on the heels of the first Bitcoin ETF being approved in America:
“Next year, we expect to see further expansion of global payments that do not come from legacy banking institutions. Bitcoin and other digital currencies have changed the financial landscape and shifted the way we look at all assets.
We do believe by year-end 2020, we will see a Bitcoin ETF listed in the United States. This event could be the catalyst to push Bitcoin above $14,000. One of the main drivers for this expectation is that similar ETFs have already been approved in Europe.”
Altcoin Daily: $20,000
Popular crypto YouTuber Altcoin Daily is no stranger to making bitcoin predictions. On January 4th, 2019, the pundit projected that bitcoin would outperform almost every altcoin over the following 12 months, an estimation that ended up panning out.
Accordingly, Altcoin Daily has their 2020 BTC predictions in now, and they’re as follows: while the next altcoin season might be in store 2021 or 2022, this year could see the bitcoin price hit its former all-time high of $20,000 before the halving occurs later this year.
That’s interesting, as some analysts argue that most price action will occur after the halving.
Yet whatever happens with the halving, Altcoin Daily predicts there’s a good chance bitcoin touches $20,000 before the end of the year.
Tom Lee: $25,000 by 2022
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the biggest biggest bitcoin bull on Wall Street, predicted in 2019 that BTC could hit $40,000 by EOY. That never came to fruition, but he re-calibrated in November 2019 and predicted bitcoin would hit $25,000 by 2022.
Peter Brandt: perhaps below ~$6,800 before +$50,000
Classical chartist Peter Brandt has become a hit in crypto trading circles for his emotionless bitcoin charting commentary.
Last November, Brandt chimed into a Twitter thread by Tuur Demeester, a popular bitcoin analyst and founder of Adamant Capital. Demeester had pointed out that BTC was then seeming to come up against resistance at the $6,800 support level. To that, Brandt said:
“Tuur, I think a prolonged journey below the line might be needed to thoroughly prepare BTC for the move to $50,000. The bulls must first be fully purged. When no bulls can be found on Twitter, then we will have a great buy signal.”
In other words, Brandt said things might have to get ugly before they once again get pretty for bitcoin. Notably, Brandt later said in December that BTC was seemingly holding at a key support level, so a major turn below $6,800 may not happen after all.
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 18, 2019
Antoni Trenchev: $50,000
Antoni Trenchev is a co-founder of crypto lending play Nexo. In comments to Bloomberg in early January, Trenchev hailed a $50,000 bitcoin price as being possible in 2020:
“I think that, very easily, we could see bitcoin going up to $50,000 by the end of this year … The initial idea was, we’re going to pay for coffees with bitcoin. But, obviously, that has failed to materialize. The narrative, now, that is much more persuasive is that bitcoin is the new gold, and we see confirmation with the turmoil that we have this morning — bitcoin is rallying on par with gold.”
“The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000.” — PlanB
Pseudonymous bitcoin analyst PlanB is best known for writing on the “stock-to-flow” valuation model for bitcoin, which suggests BTC will become increasingly valuable as its scarcity grows thanks to halvings cutting block rewards. Speaking on how that $55,000 price tag could be reached, PlanB has written:
“People ask me where all the money needed for $1trn bitcoin market value would come from? My answer: silver, gold, countries with negative interest rate (Europe, Japan, US soon), countries with predatory governments (Venezuela, China, Iran, Turkey etc), billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors discovering the best performing asset of last 10 yrs.”
Tomas Salles: $80,000
Tomas Salles is a cryptocurrency analyst at popular forex trade publication FXStreet. In his 2020 bitcoin price forecast writeup, Salles analyzed previous halvings and predicted that another post-halving surge toward $80,000 would be in store for BTC this year. The bolded emphasis below are Salles’s own:
“The first of these [halvings] occurred on November 28, 2012, and reduced the original reward from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block. The value of the BTC/USD pair was 12.22 and after 368 days the value had skyrocketed an incredible 9218.67%, up to $1178 per BTC.
The second halving occurred on July 9, 2016. This halving reduced the mined reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC per block. At the time of the event, the value of the BTC/USD pair was $657.61 and after 525 days, the value of the Bitcoin rose 2938.57% to its historic high of $19800.
A simple progression indicates that possibly in the next event the development up to the next historical maximum would require almost three years with approximate profitability of something more than 1000% and a value close to $80000.”
Mark Yusko: $100,000
Formerly a bitcoin skeptic, Mark Yusko, the chief executive and chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, has “hyperbullish” sentiments going forward. He recently predicted that BTC could hit $100,000 by 2021 and perhaps $500,000 around 2030:
“Between now and 2021, we’re likely to see $100,000 bitcoin … By 2025, we’re likely to see $250,000 bitcoin, and then some time out, 2030, we could see $400,000 or $500,000 bitcoin as it reaches gold equivalence … It really is about the growth mindset and focusing on the venture capital upside or the asymmetric upside of the asset at this point.”
Tim Draper: $250,000
“This is going to be so big so if you see a dip, jump in. Maybe it will dip further but boy, I made that prediction and I’m sticking to it. $250,000 by 2022 for bitcoin.” – Tim Draper.
Draper is the founder of Draper Associates and DFJ. Outside of the cryptocurrency world, Draper is largely credited with being the grandfather of viral marketing via online mediums like Hotmail, Skype, and others.
Recently, Draper doubled down on the $250,000 BTC price prediction he made in 2018, arguing to BlockTV that bitcoin should be sitting pretty in the near future.
“If you run a technical analysis, it looks like it’ll be something like six months after the halving that we will cross $250,000 per Bitcoin,” Draper said.
Cameron Winklevoss: $320,000
“So, if you look at a $100 billion market cap today, now last week it might have been more like 200, so it’s actually a buying opportunity, we think that there’s a potential appreciation of 30 to 40 times because you look at the gold market today, it’s a $7 trillion market. And so, a lot of people are starting to see that, they recognize the store of value properties. So, we think regardless of the price moves in the last few weeks, it’s still a very underappreciated asset.” – Cameron Winklevoss.
The Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, are stars in the crypto space for their rapid rise to a net worth of more than $1 billion, largely powered by BTC gains. Cameron Winklevoss’ prediction of a ~$320,000 Bitcoin assumes a 10- to 20-year timeline.
John Pfeffer: $700,000
“Bitcoin is the first viable candidate to replace gold the world has ever seen. So, if Bitcoin becomes the dominant non-sovereign store of value, it could be the new gold, or new reserve currency.” – John Pfeffer.
Although he did not give a timeline for his prediction, the Pfeffer Capital partner previously told a New York investment crowd that bitcoin’s value will exceed $700,000 if it indeed replaces gold as a store of value.
He backed up his assertion with some math: If bitcoin replaces all privately held gold bullion, or $1.6 trillion in gold, the 18 million or so bitcoin that he estimates will be in circulation at that time will be worth a bare minimum of $90,000 apiece.
Of course, Bitcoin’s value can only go up from there, which is where he came up with the $700,000 figure. Relative odds of all this happening? Pfeffer puts 8 percent on $90,000, 1 percent on $700,000.
John McAfee: $1,000,000 (sike!)
“I absolutely stand by the million-dollar [bitcoin price] prediction … It is still two and a half years away, in which two things will happen: bitcoin will continue to grow, and the US dollar and other fiat currencies will devalue.” – John McAfee.
That what the controversial software and crypto figure was saying then, but it’s not what he’s saying now. After earning infamy with the most boisterous prediction in the cryptoeconomy to date, McAfee has since said that his self-cannibalism bet was all just a ruse to spur adoption. Surprise, surprise!
Eat my dick in 12 months?
A ruse to onboard new users. It worked.
Bitcoin was first. It's an ancient technology. All know it.
Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more.
Bitcoin is our future?
Was the Model T the future of the automobile?
— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) January 5, 2020
Bitcoin Time Traveler: $1,000,000 by 2021
One of the most popular developments in Bitcoin meme-lore has been that of the “Time Traveler.” Six years ago, Redditor u/Luka_Magnotta posted a thread in r/Bitcoin humorously claiming he had come back from the future to warn everyone of just how successful bitcoin had become by then and the various consequences that had come with that success.
The curious thing? The Time Traveler’s average price predictions were pretty much on the money until 2019. They correctly predicted BTC would hit $1,000 in 2015 and $10,000 in 2017 for example:
“I am sending this message from the year 2025. Things are looking bleak here, and some of you will carry blood on your hands … On average, every year so far, the value of Bitcoin has increased by about a factor ten. From 0.1 dollar in 2010, to 1 dollar in 2011, to 10 dollar in 2012, to 100 dollar in 2013. From now on, there’s a slight slowdown, as the value increased by a factor ten every two years, to 1,000 dollar in 2015, to 10,000 in 2017, 100,000 in 2019, and 1,000,000 in 2021.”
The big questions for bitcoin heading into 2020 center around 1) the halving, 2) BTC’s possible safe haven asset status, and 3) what happens if the next global recession begins.
It could end up being a huge year for the bitcoin price, or this upcoming halving could go differently from the ones in past years and BTC could have a sideways or downward run over the next 12 months depending on all kinds of political and economic factors.
In the meantime, we’ll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. Yet one thing is for sure: bitcoin is entering its second decade as a success, whatever happens from here on out.