Just five days out from the Bitcoin block reward halving, analysts are buying coins en-masse in preparation for more upside.
The cryptocurrency topped $9,500 on Thursday for the first time since March, setting a new local high just above $9,600.
This latest move may be small in dollar terms but analysts say it’s important from a technical standpoint, with one commenting that once Bitcoin decisively clears past $9,500, he doesn’t see “much stopping us” until $10,500. For the asset to clear this resistance, it will need to close a daily candle above the level.
Bitcoin’s bout of strength on Thursday comes as the stock market has seen a generous rally of 1.7%, despite the growing fears of a retracement by analysts at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. This may suggest BTC is just following stocks higher.
What’s Behind the Move?
Behind the move is a confluence of fundamental trends, analysts have said.
Rich Rosenblum, co-head of trading at GSR, told Bloomberg last week that Bitcoin’s latest rally is “as much about positive macro sentiment as it is about the upcoming halving,” referencing how the economy is attempting to get back up on its feet despite the COVID-19 lockdowns. The idea here going that Bitcoin benefits when the going is good, Rosenblum explained:
We’re starting to have a lot more certainty, as more countries begin to share their plans to reopen the economy in May. This clearer path forward helps explain why stocks and Bitcoin stabilized over the last seven days, along with today’s burst.
This was echoed by Zac Prince, CEO of crypto financial services platform BlockFi, who told Bloomberg that the current market dynamics are “driving a bolstered interest” in digital currency that will boost Bitcoin:
May’s halving is a perfectly timed opportunity for Bitcoin. Current market dynamics are driving a bolstered interest on digital currency for the long run that go beyond a rudimentary understanding of the rules of supply and demand. Historically, past halving events have always resulted in an eventual upswing of BTC. We’ve been rightfully bullish in the past, and we’re bullish now.
As to the exact “market dynamics” that he was referencing, the executive said in a tweet that he is bullish because the Federal Reserve is continuing to pump trillions of dollars worth of liquidity into markets while stablecoins have grown at a rapid clip.
Analysts Divided Over What’s Next for Bitcoin
Analysts are currently divided over what comes next for Bitcoin in the short to medium term, though most agree the cryptocurrency remains on track to rally in the year ahead.
Per previous reports from Blockonomi, analyst Filb Filb explained that from how he sees it, the most optimistic case will be for Bitcoin to briefly cross $10,000, but then will spend the next three or so months under $9,000 due to a growing propensity by traders to short BTC.
This growing interest was attributed to the fact that Bitcoin has strongly outperformed all assets over the past few months and is approaching resistance from $9,500-10,500, incentivizing traders to flip short.
A trader, on the other hand, has noted that there’s a strong confluence of positive technical trends on Bitcoin’s weekly time frame, giving credence to a longer-term rally. The trends identified are as follows:
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which is a lagging indicator tracking momentum, has seen a bullish cross. The indicator flipped green at $2,000 in 2017 to mark the start of a 1,000% rally to $20,000.
- The Parabolic Stop-And-Run indicator has printed a “buy.”
- Bitcoin has crossed above three key averages: the 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week simple moving averages.
