Despite a couple of price pullbacks, Bitcoin has stayed above the $5,000 price level leading many to speculate that BTC is in a bullish cycle. Several analysts and commentators forecast a positive run for Bitcoin with some expecting BTC to reach a new all-time high (ATH).
Long-term Bitcoin Bottom
Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday (April 10, 2019) Kelly declared that the fall to $3,100 in December 2018 marked a new long-term low for Bitcoin. After trading sideways between the Summer and Fall of 2018, BTC crashed in mid-November amid a bitter civil war in the Bitcoin Cash arena.
The strain from the Bitcoin Cash hash war saw BTC fundamentals take a nosedive leading to a reduction in the confidence of many in the market. The result, the BTC price careened from $6,000 to $3,100.
Commenting on the matter, Kelly said:
“I think it is a Bitcoin resurgence. I think there is a pretty good chance that the December lows we saw in the $3,000 [level] is probably the lows for this cycle.”
The emergence of Strong Technical and Market Fundamentals
Kelly’s based his assertions about the coming Bitcoin resurgence on the emergence of favorable technical and market fundamentals. Earlier in the year, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors declared that many of the negative market conditions of 2018 had flipped to the positive side.
The BKCM chief espoused the same position mentioning the imminent arrival of important institutional developments like the Fidelity custody platform. There is also a marked increase in institutional capital flowing into the BTC market.
Recent data from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that there was a massive spike in long BTC futures contracts leading up to the April 2019 surge. The CME Bitcoin futures platform recorded an 88 percent increase in long BTC bets on April 2, 2019.
According to Kelly:
“You are starting to see institutional investors coming in here with a good fundamental tailwind and that’s got Bitcoin back in the saddle again.”
On the retail side, the Kimchi Premium in South Korea is also beginning to reappear. The BTC markup in the South Korean market is a major indicator of bullish sentiment. Recent reports also indicate that Chinese traders are also paying a premium to purchase BTC.
On the technical fundamental side, the story is also similar. According to Kelly, active BTC wallet addresses has increased by more than 26 percent since the start of 2018. Also, the transaction volume of the BTC blockchain is back to 2017 highs.
Parabolic Growth Phase
Veteran trader and analyst, Peter Brandt earlier in April predicted that BTC was entering a parabolic phase. Brandt accurately forecasted the 80 percent price drop of 2018. Kelly expressed a similar sentiment saying that Bitcoin would reach a new ATH during this new bull cycle. Bitcoin’s current ATH stands at $19,500 set in mid-December 2017.
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 5, 2019
Kelly’s timeline covers a two-year period with the Bitcoin halving in between. According to the BKCM chief, BTC’s cycle is usually a year before to year after the halving event – when the block reward for miners gets reduced by 50 percent.
However, Kelly does add that such a bullish run is contingent on the institutional side of things kicking off. Projects like the Fidelity custody platform and the Bakkt physical-BTC futures contract will likely come online in 2019.