China’s Hidden Gold Buying? Goldman Sachs Estimates 128% More Than Official Figures

TLDR:

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Goldman Sachs estimates 148 tonnes of Chinese gold buying from May to August, against 65 tonnes reported.
The estimated 83-tonne gap exceeds China’s official four-month additions by 128%, but remains unverified.
May’s 48-tonne estimate exceeded the 10 tonnes disclosed, while August’s gap narrowed to just five tonnes.
Global central bank gold buying reached an estimated 79 tonnes in August, against 39 tonnes disclosed.

A widening gap between inferred bullion purchases and official reserve additions has placed China’s gold demand under renewed scrutiny. Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese buyers acquired 148 tonnes between May and August 2026, compared with 65 tonnes officially disclosed by the People’s Bank of China. That 83-tonne difference equals 128% of the officially reported total.

Market reports on October 19, 2026, highlighted the discrepancy, which The Kobeissi Letter also circulated. It draws attention to trading activity attributed to Chinese demand in London’s over-the-counter (OTC) bullion market, where transactions do not necessarily translate into prompt reserve disclosures.

BREAKING: China purchased +25 tonnes of gold in August via the London OTC market, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

This is +25% more than the official +20 tonnes reported by China's central bank for this month.

This also follows estimated purchases of +35, +40, and +48… pic.twitter.com/6qv1fCovBB

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 22, 2026

The comparison does not establish that Beijing secretly acquired 83 tonnes. Goldman’s model estimates purchases using market flows and trade indicators, while the PBoC reports changes in recorded holdings. Those distinct measures can diverge because of methodology and timing.

China’s Gold Buying Gap Hits 128% as Goldman Estimates 148 Tonnes

The monthly breakdown shows the largest discrepancy in May. Goldman estimated 48 tonnes of demand against an official addition of approximately 10 tonnes, creating a 38-tonne gap. June followed with 40 tonnes estimated and 15 tonnes disclosed. July’s figures narrowed to 35 tonnes versus 20 tonnes, before August recorded 25 tonnes against approximately 20 tonnes.

Consequently, the estimated monthly excess fell from 38 tonnes in May to five tonnes in August. Nevertheless, the four-month cumulative difference remained substantial because the strongest divergences occurred earlier in the period.

Source: World Gold Council

The World Gold Council placed China’s official holdings at 2,387 tonnes in August after an increase of 20.2 tonnes. September 2026 brought a further 23 tonnes, extending the central bank’s buying streak to 23 months and raising reserves to 2,410 tonnes.

Goldman Estimates 79 Tonnes in Central Bank Buying Versus 39 Reported

A similar split appears in estimates of worldwide central-bank demand. Goldman placed August purchases at 79 tonnes, approximately 4.6 times the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes.

The World Gold Council, meanwhile, logged 39 tonnes in publicly reported net additions, underscoring the distinction between inferred market activity and disclosed transactions. The figures reflect different methods of measuring demand, not separate inventories of newly acquired bullion.

In particular, the inferred 148 tonnes cannot be added to the officially reported 65 tonnes without double counting potential overlaps. Reserve diversification provides broader context. In the Council’s 2026 survey, 89% of respondents expected global official holdings to increase over the following year.

Another 74% anticipated a reduction in the US dollar’s share of reserves over five years. Those responses measure survey expectations, not completed purchases. For investors, the documented difference is therefore a measurement gap. It does not independently verify undisclosed sovereign holdings or prove intentional concealment.

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