TLDR
- CoreWeave stock trades near $50, up about 3% ahead of Tuesday’s after-close report.
- Analysts expect revenue of $3.54 billion and a loss of $1.54 a share.
- Hitting the low end of the $12.4 billion annual forecast needs about $7.75 billion in the second half.
- The 2032 bonds fell as low as 74.75 cents on the dollar after the midterms.
- Options pricing implies a post-earnings range of about $39.65 to $58.30.
CoreWeave (CRWV) stock trades near $50 on Tuesday, up about 3% ahead of its third-quarter report. The company reports after the close, with the release due at 4:10 p.m. ET.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
Wall Street expects a loss of $1.54 a share, or $700.3 million. A year ago, the loss was 22 cents a share, or $110.1 million.
Revenue is forecast at $3.54 billion, up from $1.36 billion a year earlier. That is a jump of about 160%.
The stock is still down more than 60% from its May high of $138.25. It hit a 19-month low of $40.58 on November 5.
The Math Behind the Guidance
CoreWeave’s full-year revenue forecast starts at $12.4 billion. It booked $4.65 billion in the first half.
To reach the low end, it needs about $7.75 billion in the second half. Third-quarter guidance was $3.45 billion to $3.60 billion.
Research firm Tessara is also tracking active power capacity. CoreWeave expects it to grow from 1.5 gigawatts at the end of June to more than 1.85 gigawatts by year-end.
Morgan Stanley says reaffirming guidance would help. Still, its analysts think investors will focus most on what management says about financing.
Debt Takes the Spotlight
CoreWeave relies on private credit, asset-backed loans and other debt to build its data centers. Its 2032 bonds fell as low as 74.75 cents on the dollar after last week’s midterms.
Credit spreads widened, and lenders are getting pickier about new projects. The stock has dropped 40% over the past month.
Monday was choppy. The stock fell in premarket trading, then closed up 5.6%.
The early dip may have tied back to Nvidia, which fell 5.3%. Nvidia said CEO Jensen Huang would face an independent review after reports of a “foreign intelligence effort.”
Wells Fargo cut its price target to $115 from $160 but kept an Overweight rating. The firm still calls CoreWeave the strongest “neocloud” name and expects capacity and revenue to beat estimates.
Rosenblatt lowered its target to $160 from $250 and kept a Buy rating. Oppenheimer sits at $150.
CoreWeave also signed a multiyear deal to power Wayve’s self-driving AI models. Wayve will train on Nvidia Blackwell chips, using driving data from more than 70 countries.
In Texas, CEO Michael Intrator congratulated Governor-elect Hinojosa and asked state leaders to let permitted projects move forward. CoreWeave runs six active sites in the state.
Options markets imply a swing between about $39.65 and $58.30 after earnings. The put/call ratio shows a mild call bias.
