Last week, the crypto market saw a historic event: both Bitcoin and Libra were mentioned in name by the sitting American President. Surprisingly enough, Donald Trump’s thoughts, or his administration’s thoughts rather, weren’t all optimistic.
In a three-part Twitter thread that got picked up by just about every mainstream outlet, the businessman-turned-world leader was overtly bearish on Bitcoin, calling it volatile, inherently invaluable, and a medium for criminal financial activity.
As a result of this sudden tweetstorm, which many say would cement Bitcoin as “dangerous” in the eyes of millions, some investors began to run scared.
The tweets, in fact, may be a way to explain Bitcoin’s move to $9,900. But, despite this, analysts and industry commentators are sure that in the long run, Trump’s tweet will only help to bolster the viability of the cryptocurrency industry.
Donald Trump’s Bitcoin Tweet is Bullish?
Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ resident cryptocurrency bull, Thomas Lee, made it clear that he’s unfazed by Trump’s impassioned roast of this budding industry.
In the interview, Lee said that all things considered, the tweets are “positive” because they cement the idea that cryptocurrencies are a relevant topic on the global geopolitical and macroeconomic stage. Indeed, over the past few weeks, the words “Bitcoin”, “Libra”, and “Crypto” have begun to grace mainstream outlets and government hearings time and time again.
That’s not all, as the markets analyst went on to suggest, Trump’s comments “makes the other 99% [of the world] more aware [of cryptocurrency].” And if 1% of this new audience somehow finds value in the cryptocurrency market, the size of the community surrounding this asset class would de-facto double instantly.
On balance, it’s a positive.
– there are at most 1% of the world who really follow crypto (more like 0.1%) so 99% basically don’t care
– DJT stating he is not a fan makes the other 99% more aware.
– if 1% of those gets positive, just 2x market size. https://t.co/dz9QY3mjWP
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) July 13, 2019
“It’s going to force everybody who is not involved — and remember a very small percentage actually cares about crypto and bitcoin — it’s going to force the other 98% of the world to think about what it means,” he added while in discussion with Yahoo’s anchors.
That’s not all. As RT contributor Max Keiser explained, Trump’s anti-Bitcoin stance should force nations that are anti-Trump to look into cryptocurrencies to spite the American leader. In a world of ever-growing tension between nations on different sides of the political spectrum, this may not be as crazy as it sounds.
Bitcoin May Hit $40k This Year
Trump’s ability to boost the network effects of Bitcoin isn’t the only bullish sign in the eyes of Lee. From previous interviews and comments, it is clear that the Fundstrat co-founder has begun to identify a confluence of factors that could be a boon for BTC.
These positive catalysts include the launch of Libra, which analyst Luke Martin suggested may be the biggest onramp to Bitcoin ever; a growth in cases of dovish fiscal policy, which some say will increase the chances of a recession and large inflationary events; and geopolitical tension that could only bolster the fundamental need for decentralized money.
All this, Lee explains, could help Bitcoin in reaching the $20,000 to $40,000 range by the end of the year. He elaborates:
“Bitcoin is now trading at a level that it’s only seen 3% of its historical days. If you go back to every milestone that that was achieved, bitcoin subsequently rallied somewhere between 200% to 400% within the next four months, so I think if that’s playing out this time that means bitcoin could be $20,000 to $40,000 sometime in the fourth quarter.”
A model from a prominent cryptocurrency fund manager, Timothy Peterson, also suggests that BTC hitting $40,000 is likely. Peterson recently noted that it’s possible to relate Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of any given year to the second half with a model. The model he derived suggests that since BTC rallied nearly 200% from January to the end of June, it has the potential of moving higher by around another 250% from year-to-date high levels.