Despite the recent recovery in the crypto markets, Bitcoin remains far below its all-time high of $20,000.
But according to a top investor, the cryptocurrency will revisit this price in the very near future.
Bitcoin to Soon Surmount $20,000?
In April 2nd’s episode of CNBC “Closing Bell,” Mike Novogratz — an ex-partner at Goldman Sachs and CEO of crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital — doubled down on a prediction he made that Bitcoin will retest $20,000 by the end of 2020.
He added that within the coming six months, BTC should double, which would mean a price of at least $12,000 by October.
— CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) April 2, 2020
He put so much faith in the prediction that he said:
“This is the year of Bitcoin and if it doesn’t go up now by the end of the year, I might just hang my spurs.”
It isn’t only Novogratz that is expecting Bitcoin to hit $20,000 within the coming year.
Per previous reports from Blockonomi, Dan Morehead, a former Wall Street trader turned head of crypto fund Pantera Capital, said that he thinks Bitcoin will set a new record within the 12 months:
My best guess is that it will take institutional investors 2–3 months to triage their current portfolio issues. Another 3–6 months to research new opportunities like distressed debt, special situations, crypto, etc. Then, as they begin making allocations, those markets will really begin to rise.
Also, Raoul Pal — a former Goldman Sachs executive and hedge fund manager — suggested in a recent interview that he thinks Bitcoin will clear its $20,000 high within the coming 12 to 18 months.
What’s The Idea Behind These Predictions?
Although all individual investors and analysts with their own opinions about markets, these three investors seem to agree on what will cause Bitcoin to appreciate so far and so fast: central banks.
In the aforementioned interview, Novogratz explained that he thinks society has passed the “Rubicon,” so to say, of money printing and the monetization of debt to try and spur economic growth.
Indeed, to try and stave off a collapse in society, this, governments and central banks have been forced to respond with their most drastic measures available — boosted unemployment benefits, tax holidays, free money for all citizens, trillions of dollars worth of quantitative easing, and negative interest rates.
All three of the aforementioned investors believe this trend, which is both debasing fiat money and showing the flaws of the traditional system, could benefit Bitcoin, a scarce and decentralized alternative to fiat money. As Morehead wrote in a recent newsletter:
As governments increase the quantity of paper money, it takes more pieces of paper money to buy things that have fixed quantities, like stocks and real estate, above where they would settle absent an increase in the amount of money. I think they will do that. The corollary is they’ll also inflate the price of other things, like gold, bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies.
Novogratz, notably, also believes the dynamic of the block reward halving could boost the value of Bitcoin, as he mentioned this event in an interview with CNBC published earlier this year.
Indeed, as found by PlanB, Bitcoin’s market capitalization over time can be plotted on a logarithmic regression, which has an R squared of 95%, or extremely accurate in non-statistics lingo terms.
The model predicts that BTC will have a fair value of $55,000 to $100,000 — ten to twenty times the current value — after the halving due to the emission shock.