Key Highlights
- Shares of SpaceX climbed nearly 16% across Friday and Monday sessions, finishing at $171.09.
- Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas maintains a Buy rating with a $300 price target on the stock.
- The company’s valuation has compressed to approximately 106x projected 2027 earnings from 1,000x in June.
- Consensus estimates call for earnings per share of $1.70 in 2027, expanding to $21.05 by 2031.
- The upcoming Starship test mission and third-quarter financial results represent key near-term events for investors.
Shares of SpaceX reached $171.09 at Monday’s close, marking the highest price point since mid-June. The stock advanced roughly 8% during Monday’s trading session and posted a combined gain of nearly 16% over the two-day period spanning Friday and Monday.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The rally followed a positive research report from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who issued an optimistic assessment of the aerospace company. Jonas maintains a Buy recommendation and established a $300 price objective for the shares.
This price objective represents potential appreciation of approximately 75% from Monday’s closing level. In his research note, Jonas emphasized that the stock continues to become “cheaper and cheaper” despite rising nominal share prices.
The reasoning centers on valuation compression. SpaceX currently trades at roughly 106 times projected 2027 earnings. While this multiple appears elevated in absolute terms, it represents a dramatic decline from earlier in the year.
Following its June initial public offering, the stock commanded approximately 1,000 times forward 2027 earnings estimates. By July, that valuation multiple had contracted to around 200 times. The ratio has since declined by another 50%.
Rapid Earnings Growth Drives Valuation Shift
The contraction in valuation multiples stems from rapidly rising earnings projections. Following the company’s public debut, Wall Street analysts initially forecast minimal profitability for SpaceX.
Current consensus estimates anticipate 2027 earnings per share reaching approximately $1.70. Projections extend that figure to $21.05 by 2031.
This trajectory implies an earnings compound annual growth rate approaching 90%. Using the PEG ratio methodology—dividing the P/E multiple by the growth rate—SpaceX scores approximately 1.2.
By comparison, the broader S&P 500 index trades at a PEG ratio near two. A lower PEG figure typically indicates more attractive valuation relative to anticipated growth prospects.
Jonas represents the middle ground among sell-side analysts. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale maintains an even more aggressive stance with an $800 price target, implying a market capitalization of approximately $11 trillion for SpaceX.
Multiple Catalysts Supporting Share Price Momentum
In his research note, Jonas identified several potential catalysts on the horizon. These include forthcoming artificial intelligence product launches, advancement in the Starship program, and expansion of neocloud computing partnerships.
He highlighted the next Starship test mission as a particularly significant upcoming event. Successfully capturing and recovering the upper stage would constitute the most important positive development since the company’s IPO, according to the analyst.
Earlier test missions concluded with the upper stage performing controlled water landings rather than being retrieved. The company’s third-quarter financial results, anticipated in late October, represent another near-term event that could move shares.
Recent operational activity at SpaceX has accelerated. The company executed multiple launch missions within a 24-hour window, including a crewed NASA mission to the International Space Station.
One mission deployed Google’s artificial intelligence processing chips to orbit. Following its acquisitions of Elon Musk’s xAI and subsequently Cursor, SpaceX has established an AI computing revenue stream.
The company now leases computational infrastructure to clients including Google and Anthropic. SpaceX completed its initial public offering on June 12 with shares priced at $135.
The stock achieved a record closing price of $201.80 on June 16 before declining more than 30% leading up to the first post-IPO lockup expiration. After bottoming in early August, shares have since rebounded approximately 58%.
In Tuesday’s premarket session, SpaceX stock traded at $173.36, gaining 1.3%. Including premarket activity, the stock has advanced 17% over a three-day span.
According to Forbes’ real-time wealth tracking, Musk’s net worth reached $1.03 trillion following Monday’s market close, reflecting his ownership positions in Tesla and SpaceX. SpaceX declined to provide comment when contacted.
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