TLDR
- The US and Iran have held a ceasefire since Sunday, but Polymarket odds of it lasting 14 days dropped from over 60% to around 53%.
- Prediction market Myriad shows most money betting that formal peace talks won’t start until August.
- President Trump told Axios he is ready to return to military action if diplomacy fails.
- Iran denies direct talks are happening, saying mediators are only passing messages.
- Oil prices dropped sharply, with Brent crude falling 4.8% to $84.09 as markets priced in lower conflict risk.
The United States and Iran have gone three days without an attack after 13 straight nights of US strikes. But prediction markets are not convinced the pause will hold.
A Polymarket contract tracking whether the ceasefire lasts 14 continuous days without a US strike on Iranian soil fell from over 60% to around 53% on Tuesday. That is close to a coin flip.
What Prediction Markets Are Showing
The drop suggests traders think there is a real chance fighting resumes before two weeks pass. A ceasefire announcement is not the same as a lasting halt in fighting.
President Trump added to that uncertainty. He told Axios he was ready to return to “very strong military action” if talks with Iran fail.
Myriad, a separate prediction market, tracks something more specific. It asks whether a formal, senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks will begin by July 31.
Most of the money on Myriad is betting that any real talks will be delayed until next month. The platform’s rules do not count phone calls or messages passed through mediators as real negotiations.
Iran has publicly denied that direct talks are underway. Officials say mediators are only carrying messages between the two sides.
This is not the first time markets have doubted an Iran ceasefire. An earlier pause in April sent Bitcoin and oil prices higher, but analysts called it fragile at the time.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz did not fully normalize after that April truce either. Ships kept turning back even as the ceasefire held.
Mediators Push a Wider Deal
Separately, Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar are working on a plan to revive a broader US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed last month. The plan focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route.
Iran and Oman have reportedly accepted the mediators’ proposal. The final decision now rests with Trump.
Iran wants more control over the strait than the US has agreed to. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran rejected an Omani plan to split shipping routes equally between the two countries.
Gharibabadi also said Iran has not asked for ceasefire talks with the US in the past 17 days. He claimed it was Washington that sought dialogue through Oman.
Oil prices fell as these reports spread. Brent crude dropped 4.8% to $84.09 a barrel on Tuesday, while US crude fell 4.1% to $79.26.
Both prices hit their lowest levels in about two weeks. Brent has now fallen close to 16% over three trading sessions.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited despite the lower prices. Energy markets remain exposed if tensions rise again.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met at the White House and discussed Iran. The meeting was described by the US administration as positive and productive.
Netanyahu said afterward that both leaders share the goal of stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Neither side has confirmed whether Trump approved the mediators’ Strait of Hormuz proposal.
For now, the next update is expected to come from Washington, Oman, or the three mediating countries.
